What A Bloomberg Third Term Will Mean For The Public Schools

Writing over at Gotham Schools, Elizabeth Green has outlined her view of what a third term means for the public schools. Here are my ten predictions of what we'll see if the mayor does get elected again:

1. More Charter Schools -- First on Elizabeth's list, this one is a no-brainer. The mayor and chancellor's preference for charters over public schools is well known. But look for large swaths of some districts to be given over the charters.
   
2. Cuts in School Construction -- The administration has suggested the next capital plan will be smaller. Bloomberg cut school construction after 9/11. He'll return to that playbook. Pushing school construction out or canceling it will not affect the people who urged the mayor to run again. Their kids all go to private school.
   
3. End of Community School Districts -- These exist mostly in name only. Superintendents have all been assigned data coaching duties which take them far from their district and make it impossible to do their jobs. In a third term the administration would achieve their goal of eliminating what's left of districts. (We might see District 31 / Staten Island hold out the longest due to their geographic isolation.)
   
4. More Testing -- Another no-brainer. Chief Accountability Officer Jim Liebman has made no secret of his desire to push high stakes testing to younger and younger kids. Test scores will be used to justify or rate everything and those activities that don't contribute to improving scores will see cuts. Which leads to...
   
5. Less of the Arts and Enrichment -- Budget cuts and the narrow focus on driving test scores will cause an impoverishment of the curriculum.
   
6. More Push-outs and Drop-outs -- Another consequence of the testing mania. Texas was an early adopter of aggressive use of high stakes testing. Studies have shown the sinister underside -- struggling lower income kids pushed out of the system to keep them from dragging down test scores. Look for the same here, especially with the test-based retention programs now in grades 3,5,7,8.
   
7. Continued De-professionalization of Teaching -- The traditional concept that a teacher is a highly respected professional is under assault in too many ways to list here. Rather than seeking to create an environment where teachers and students can be successful, the DOE will employ carrots and sticks to manage a workforce made up increasingly of short termers with alternative credentials.
   
8. Exodus of Competent Administrators -- Many have been holding out thinking they could wait out Klein and Bloomberg. The prospect of four more years will cause them to buckle and flee.
   
9. Repression and Retaliation -- Deputy Chancellor Chris Cerf has bragged about forming "Truth Squads" to comb through blogs and listservs ferreting out the bad things said about DOE. He admitted to sending communication office staffers to tape lectures of Diane Ravitch, the distinguished academic who has been critical of the Bloomberg education record. With no re-election or governance debate in the third term, expect those who don't toe the line to see consequences.
10. Reign of the Foundations -- Educational policy in this city is really set by the unaccountable and faceless foundations -- Gates Foundation, Broad Foundation, Dell Foundation, etc. These are the true "special interests". Experimentation with the education of urban children is a hobby for billionaires. Look for the rich guys to have free reign with our kids.
    

A grim picture but clearly possible. This year's decision in Albany on mayoral control and the next mayoral election will determine how much comes to pass.